Rare Tolkien Books & Collectables

Before the internet the prices of rare books, not just Tolkien's, were available to the public through dealer catalogues, auction results and some fan clubs. These were generally regional or national and buying a book from the other side of the globe was not common, except for the very valuable, museum standard copies. As information is inherently out of date as soon as it is printed, there could be a variety of prices for the very same book. Historically the most recent, highest selling price became the new benchmark. As regards very rare copies, however, so few came on to the market that values could be seen to jump or fall significantly since the last sale, months or years previously.

A dealer's price would be "priced forward" based on price trends and to allow a discount. The value was never real-time or fixed in stone, as with all rare collectibles. Prices of unique items are not set by fundamental laws of supply and demand but are speculative values. These are established not just by greedy sellers, but mostly by keen buyers driving prices up. This applies to most markets, not just the book market. Prices rise because people are able and willing to spend more. How often do we hear in the property market that a buyer put in a higher offer? That is not the seller's fault. Understanding rare book market prices is about understanding the market, especially for particular genres or authors. It takes time and experience for which there is no substitute except to pay others for their experience.

The internet changed two things in the world of books and collectibles. Firstly, one could now see the world-wide availability of items of a certain standard or with particular features. Secondly, one could see current asking prices. With a click of a button, the buyer could instantly see the quality and current price of a title, but also the seller could adjust their prices instantly. It created a "live" market. This aspect has contributed to a move away from auctions and the reliability of prices at auction. I was asked some time ago by a major dealer "did I adjust my prices real time"? The answer was "of course, why not?". For a general rare book dealer with thousands of books in stock, it is not practical to adjust prices of individual titles weekly or daily. This has led to specialisation by dealers. The fundamental feature of any market in collectibles is that their value is only what someone will pay. Trying to determine the current value of a book is now harder than ever.

One of the things I noticed in earlier internet days, when one rare book came on the internet market, five more did at the same time! Suddenly sellers were competing and forcing their own values down due to over-supply, generally by inexperienced new or one-off sellers. Once this flood of copies sold, it was months or even years before the same book came on the market again, and then at a much higher price due to scarcity. Knowing past market activity and supply is therefore as important as knowing current and predicted market values.

To err on the side of caution in a real time market, sellers 'price forward' their rare stock values more than ever to avoid selling too cheaply. Why? Not because they are greedy but because to stay in business they have to pay more to supply the same book in an increasingly popular market, often competing with their own customers in a purchase. This means that for rare books in high demand, the current price is likely to be what they will be worth at some point in the future, demand and supply being consistent in the meantime. Markets in popular collectibles act more like commodity markets as regards price trends, both being volatile due to speculation, but also subject to fundamental forces. Both buyers and sellers can be caught out by the same uncertainty and unpredictability. Sometimes I get a bargain; sometimes I pay too much. The ability to predict the market is more important than ever. However, knowing what you are buying is equally vital.

The internet has revealed that conventional wisdom about very rare books and their scarcity is not fact but simply knowledge that has become accepted because it came from a good source and has never been challenged. Most information on rare books is based on the printing technology or details provided by the publisher at the time. This is an aid to identifying true first editions but is not necessarily critical to value; it is interesting, but irrelevant. The publishers' printed descriptions, whose trade terminology was unique to the printing of books at the time, are now redundant. Several good photos can tell you everything you need to know.

Tolkien books are straightforward in so far as publishing details are clearly printed in the books. Certain variations, characteristics, or mistakes are interesting, but irrelevant to value. The books are now so scarce that all variations are valuable. What is more critical is the condition, not necessarily the printing or variation. An older printing in fine condition can be worth much more than an average early printing. The dust jacket's condition contributes most of the value of many contemporary books. Interesting features and details, whether they are correct or not, are secondary to condition, especially that of the dustjacket. What is important when choosing a particular book and its price is knowledge of market factors, not old-school publishing and book details.

This price focus can be upsetting to traditional dealers, collectors or fans. The commercialisation and commodity value aspects of modern book collecting offend the sensibility of some people, as if it degrades the intrinsic value of the author and his works. I often hear: "that's a ridiculous price you are charging, I bought mine for £25.00". The same could be said about current house prices. No new, younger buyer wants to hear about an old market and how clever you are for being born three decades sooner! It matters only what the price and condition are now and what is likely to happen in the future.

The truth about what people of all ages really want in books, or houses, is that they want the price to be low when they are buying, and then for it to shoot up soon after. They greedily want what earlier buyers got by accident but are too impatient to wait or put in the time required to buy correctly. Book investment may seem like a get rich quick scheme based on temporary market trends, but for most people it takes time and luck in the long term.